Forecasting is no easy science, just ask all those people that thought the internet was a fad or, that online shopping would flop. But, after 9 straight quarters of losses, folks need to carefully evaluate the most recent forecast from the MBA. The updated projections for 2024 volume (down 9.7 percent), units (down 10 percent) AND, average loan size numbers (flat to declining) suggest that difficult times remain. Industry forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are always one of three things: too aggressive, too conservative or, just about right. According to David Hrobon at STRATMOR Group, “Lenders need a financial plan for all three scenarios now more than ever. Counterparties need assurances that profits can be achieved in this environment or, evidence and commitments that the business can be recapitalized.” Reach out to David directly if you want to discuss further. Industry consolidation marches on.
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